Cautious risk tone as yields slip and volatility rises
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral – Equities are modestly higher, but rising volatility and weaker credit keep risk contained.
🗓 Key Events:
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – Canada CPI m/m, median CPI y/y, trimmed CPI y/y – Key inflation signals for BoC policy expectations.
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – US Empire State Manufacturing Index – Early read on US manufacturing momentum.
🌐 Market Moving News:
US stock futures rise after tech rout, while gold climbs on softer yields.
Japan business mood hits a four-year high, keeping BOJ rate-hike expectations alive.
Gold rises on softer dollar and yields as markets eye US jobs data.
Asset Snapshots:
⚪ S&P 500: Neutral – Up modestly (+0.16%) with gains capped by higher volatility.
🟢 USD (DXY): Bullish – Slightly higher as EUR/USD softens and USD holds firm.
🟢 Gold: Bullish – Up (+0.63%) supported by softer yields and steady demand.
⚪ Oil: Neutral – Higher (+0.30%) but still trading without strong momentum.
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish – Up (+1.28%) outperforming broader risk assets.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral – Slightly lower (-0.30%) despite improved business sentiment.
⚪ DAX: Neutral – Up (+0.28%) with no strong directional follow-through.
⚪ HK50: Neutral – Marginally higher (+0.03%) with muted regional risk appetite.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 15.73 – Rising, signaling more cautious positioning despite equity gains.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 75.6% chance of hold at 350-375, with 24.4% expecting the alternative.
Credit Markets: HYG (-0.19%) and LQD (-0.60%) both fall, pointing to softer credit conditions and a mild drag on equity risk appetite.
Bond Curve: 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields all move lower, signaling easing near-term rate expectations and a slightly softer macro tone.
FX Flows: USD/CNH moves lower while EUR/USD ticks higher, suggesting reduced global stress and a modest improvement in risk appetite.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
⚪ EUR: Neutral
⚪ JPY: Neutral
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
⚪ CAD: Neutral
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Rising VIX argues for selective risk exposure despite higher equities.
Falling yields continue to support gold and duration-sensitive assets.
Watch Canada CPI and US manufacturing data for next directional cues.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.