Equities grind higher while volatility eases and rate expectations stay firmly on hold.
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
▲ Bullish - Broad equity gains and a softer VIX support a constructive risk tone.
🗓 Key Events:
07:00 London / 02:00 New York - GDP m/m - Measures monthly UK growth momentum.
07:00 London / 02:00 New York - Prelim GDP q/q - Early estimate of UK quarterly growth.
13:30 London / 08:30 New York - Unemployment Claims - Weekly signal of US labor market conditions.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Asian stocks at record high as US jobs data buoy yields and dollar.
Strong job report complicates Fed’s path to more rate cuts.
Oil gains as traders take stock of Iran tensions and stockpiles.
Asset Snapshots:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish - Index is higher with a positive daily move.
🔴 USD (DXY): Bearish - Dollar is lower on the day.
🔴 Gold: Bearish - Gold is down with a negative price change.
🟢 Oil: Bullish - Crude is slightly higher on the session.
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish - Bitcoin is up with a modest gain.
Non-US Indices:
🔴 Nikkei: Bearish - Index is lower with a clear daily decline.
🟢 DAX: Bullish - German equities are slightly higher.
🔴 HK50: Bearish - Hong Kong index is down sharply.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 17.64 - Volatility is falling, indicating stable short-term market conditions.
Fed Watch (March 2026): Markets price a 94.6% chance of hold at 350-375, with 5.4% expecting the alternative.
Credit Markets: Both HYG and LQD are lower, suggesting mild pressure in credit and cautious risk appetite.
Bond Curve: US 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields are slightly lower, reflecting steady but cautious rate expectations.
FX Flows: USD/CNH and EUR/USD are both lower, pointing to mixed dollar performance without clear stress.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
⚪ S&P 500
⚪ Nasdaq 100
Currencies:
🟢 USD
🔴 EUR
⚪ JPY
⚪ GBP
⚪ AUD
🔴 CAD
Commodities:
⚪ Gold
⚪ Oil
Crypto:
🔴 Bitcoin
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Equity strength remains broad despite softer dollar.
Lower VIX supports steady risk appetite.
Fed hold expectations are now dominant in rate pricing.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.