Global markets steady as BOJ decision and US rates set the tone
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral – Equity gains are modest as falling volatility offsets mixed global policy signals.
🗓 Key Events:
03:19 London / 22:19 New York – BOJ Policy Rate – Signals Japan’s shift away from ultra-loose policy and impacts yen and Asian markets.
07:00 London / 02:00 New York – UK Retail Sales m/m – Key read on UK consumer demand and growth momentum.
15:00 London / 10:00 New York – US Existing Home Sales – Gauges housing activity and sensitivity to interest rates.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Bank of Japan raised rates to a 30-year high and signaled further hikes.
Asian shares rose after softer US CPI, while the yen weakened post-BOJ.
Oil prices remained under pressure amid weak demand concerns.
Asset Snapshots:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish – Index edges higher alongside easing volatility.
🟢 USD (DXY): Bullish – Dollar firms on higher yields and relative policy strength.
🔴 Gold: Bearish – Lower inflation and a firmer dollar weigh on prices.
⚪ Oil: Neutral – Prices drift with demand concerns offset by supply risks.
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish – Price rebounds as risk appetite stabilizes.
Non-US Indices:
🔴 Nikkei: Bearish – BOJ rate hike pressures Japanese equities.
⚪ DAX: Neutral – European stocks trade sideways ahead of policy clarity.
⚪ HK50: Neutral – Modest gains as China-related optimism remains cautious.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 16.86 – Volatility falls sharply, signaling calmer equity conditions.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 75.6% chance of a hold at 350-375 bps, with 24.4% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: HYG and LQD both rise, suggesting stable risk appetite supportive of equities.
Bond Curve: US 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields move higher, pointing to firm rate expectations and a cautious macro tone.
FX Flows: USD/CNH and EUR/USD both edge higher, indicating limited global stress and steady risk sentiment.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
⚪ EUR: Neutral
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
⚪ CAD: Neutral
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Falling VIX supports selective equity exposure.
Yen weakness remains a key driver for Japan-related trades.
Strong dollar continues to pressure precious metals.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.