Holiday-thin markets stay constructive as equities hold records and yields fall
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
▲ Bullish – Equities remain supported by falling yields, tighter credit spreads, and subdued volatility in thin holiday trading.
🗓 Key Events:
No major events today
🌐 Market Moving News:
S&P 500 and Dow close at record highs as holiday trading volume stays light.
Gold and silver touch record levels amid lower yields and steady risk appetite.
BOJ minutes show debate on continuing rate hikes, keeping yen policy in focus.
Asset Snapshots:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish – Record closes supported by falling yields and low volatility.
⚪ USD (DXY): Neutral – Dollar steady as yield declines offset risk-on flows.
⚪ Gold: Neutral – Holding near record levels with mixed daily price action.
⚪ Oil: Neutral – Slightly softer after recent gains amid geopolitical focus.
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral – Trading sideways with limited holiday participation.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral – BOJ policy debate creates mixed signals for Japanese equities.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – Weaker macro score relative to US peers.
⚪ HK50: Neutral – Small gains but lacking strong regional momentum.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 13.46 – Falling volatility signals calm risk conditions and stable equity sentiment.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price an 84.5% chance of hold at 350-375, with 15.5% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: HYG and LQD both rise, signaling stable credit conditions and supportive risk sentiment for equities.
Bond Curve: 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields all moved lower, suggesting easing rate expectations and a softer macro tone.
FX Flows: US 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields all fall, pointing to easing rate pressure and a supportive macro tone.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Holiday liquidity suggests smaller moves may be less reliable.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.