Holiday-thinned markets stay steady as yields ease and risk assets consolidate
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral – Equities are stable with falling yields and low volatility, while FX and credit signals are mixed.
🗓 Key Events:
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – US Preliminary GDP q/q – Key read on US growth momentum.
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – US Durable Goods Orders m/m – Signals business investment trends.
15:00 London / 10:00 New York – US Consumer Confidence – Measures household sentiment and demand outlook.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Stocks and precious metals rise as investors position ahead of US GDP data.
Yen remains volatile amid intervention watch from Japanese authorities.
Oil slips as markets weigh Venezuela and Russia supply risks.
Asset Snapshots:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish – Index holds near highs with stable breadth and low volatility.
⚪ USD (DXY): Neutral – Dollar eases as yields decline but remains range-bound.
🟢 Gold: Bullish – Prices rise to fresh records as yields fall and volatility stays low.
⚪ Oil: Neutral – Crude trades sideways amid mixed supply headlines.
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral – Price consolidates after recent gains with no strong momentum.
Non-US Indices:
🟢 Nikkei: Bullish – Japanese equities supported despite currency volatility.
⚪ DAX: Neutral – European stocks move sideways with limited catalysts.
🔴 HK50: Bearish – Index underperforms amid China-related uncertainty.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 14.09 – Volatility falls further, signaling calm risk conditions.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price an 80.1% chance of a hold at 3.50-3.75%, with 19.9% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: HYG edges higher while LQD is flat, suggesting steady risk appetite in equities.
Bond Curve: US 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields move lower, pointing to easing rate expectations and a softer macro tone.
FX Flows: USD/CNH and EUR/USD both move lower, indicating mild dollar softness and contained global stress.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
⚪ EUR: Neutral
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
⚪ CAD: Neutral
Commodities:
🟢 Gold: Bullish
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Watch US GDP and durable goods for confirmation of growth momentum.
Low VIX favors trend-following over defensive positioning.
Yen volatility remains a key cross-asset risk to monitor.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.