Markets cautious as tariff ruling risk collides with US jobs data
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral – Trade policy uncertainty from a potential Supreme Court tariff ruling keeps risk appetite mixed ahead of key US labor data.
🗓 Key Events:
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – US Non-Farm Employment Change – Key signal for labor market strength and Fed policy expectations.
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – US Unemployment Rate – Confirms whether labor conditions are tightening or easing.
15:00 London / 10:00 New York – US UoM Consumer Sentiment – Tracks household confidence and spending outlook.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Supreme Court tariff ruling risk raises uncertainty over up to $150bn in potential US import refunds.
Stocks swing ahead of US payrolls as investors weigh trade policy risk and labor data.
China consumer inflation hits a near three-year high while factory-gate deflation continues to ease.
Asset Snapshots:
⚪ S&P 500: Neutral – Index slightly lower as tariff uncertainty offsets stable growth signals.
🟢 USD (DXY): Bullish – Dollar firms alongside rising yields and safe-haven demand.
🔴 Gold: Bearish – Prices slip as higher yields and a stronger dollar weigh.
🔴 Oil: Bearish – Crude declines despite supply headlines, reflecting cautious demand outlook.
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral – Holding near recent levels with limited directional conviction.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral – Modest gains as global risk signals remain mixed.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – Under pressure amid trade uncertainty and weaker cyclical signals.
🔴 HK50: Bearish – Declines persist despite firmer China inflation data.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 15.46 – Slightly higher, signaling modest caution but no broad risk-off stress.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price an 86.2% chance of a hold at 3.50–3.75, with 13.8% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: HYG edges higher while LQD falls, suggesting selective risk-taking but limited conviction in equities.
Bond Curve: US 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields all move higher, reinforcing expectations for rates to stay restrictive.
FX Flows: EUR/USD ticks higher while USD/CNH eases, pointing to contained global stress despite tariff uncertainty.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
⚪ S&P 500: Neutral
⚪ Nasdaq 100: Neutral
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
⚪ EUR: Neutral
🔴 JPY: Bearish
🔴 GBP: Bearish
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
🔴 Gold: Bearish
🔴 Oil: Bearish
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Expect elevated intraday volatility around US payrolls and tariff-related headlines.
Stronger yields continue to favor USD over rate-sensitive assets.
Equity momentum remains fragile until trade policy clarity improves.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.