Markets steady as US data and falling oil prices shape sentiment
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral – Mixed moves across equities, rates, and commodities keep risk sentiment balanced.
🗓 Key Events:
07:00 London / 02:00 New York – UK GDP m/m – Signals near-term growth momentum in the UK economy.
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – US Unemployment Claims – Key gauge of labor market tightness.
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – Empire State Manufacturing Index – Early read on US manufacturing activity.
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Confirms regional manufacturing trends.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Oil prices fall after Trump calms Iran-related fears.
Asian tech stocks slide as risk appetite softens.
US retail sales data highlight continued consumer resilience.
Asset Snapshots:
⚪ S&P 500: Neutral – Index holds near highs with limited follow-through.
🟢 USD (DXY): Bullish – Dollar edges higher amid steady US data.
🔴 Gold: Bearish – Pulls back as safe-haven demand eases.
🔴 Oil: Bearish – Prices retreat sharply on reduced geopolitical risk.
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral – Trades sideways with limited momentum.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral – Gains capped as yen stability limits upside.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – Weighed by softer risk sentiment.
⚪ HK50: Neutral – Modest rebound but conviction remains low.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 16.74 – Volatility rises, signaling increased short-term uncertainty but no panic.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 95% chance of a hold at 3.50–3.75%, with 5% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: LQD rises while HYG is flat, suggesting stable credit conditions and contained equity risk.
Bond Curve: The 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields edge higher, pointing to steady rate expectations and a firm macro tone.
FX Flows: USD/CNH slips slightly while EUR/USD ticks higher, indicating mild easing in global macro stress.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🔴 S&P 500: Bearish
🔴 Nasdaq 100: Bearish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
🟢 Gold: Bullish
🔴 Oil: Bearish
Crypto:
🔴 Bitcoin: Bearish
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Watch oil volatility for spillover into equity sentiment.
Monitor US jobless claims for shifts in rate expectations.
Rising VIX suggests tighter risk management near resistance levels.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.