Markets steady as yields rise, volatility falls, and tariff uncertainty lingers
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral – Equities slip modestly while falling volatility and stable credit keep risk sentiment balanced.
🗓 Key Events:
No major scheduled macro events today.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Dollar softens after reports of a criminal probe into Fed Chair Powell, adding political uncertainty.
US equities wobble as investors reassess tariff rulings and upcoming payrolls data.
Gold rises to record highs as safe-haven demand increases amid policy and trade concerns.
Asset Snapshots:
🔴 S&P 500: Bearish – Index trades lower as higher front-end yields weigh on equities.
🔴 USD (DXY): Bearish – Dollar eases on political and policy uncertainty.
🟢 Gold: Bullish – Strong gains driven by safe-haven demand and falling volatility.
⚪ Oil: Neutral – Prices edge higher but remain range-bound amid mixed supply signals.
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish – Continues to rise alongside risk diversification flows.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral – Mixed macro signals offset modest gains.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – Weaker sentiment linked to trade and growth concerns.
🔴 HK50: Bearish – Ongoing pressure from China growth and property risks.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 14.48 – Falling sharply, signaling reduced near-term market stress.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 95% chance of a hold at 350-375 bps, with 5% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: HYG and LQD both rise, suggesting stable credit conditions and limited stress for equities.
Bond Curve: US 2Y and 5Y yields rise while long-end yields fall, pointing to firm near-term rate expectations but softer long-term growth outlook.
FX Flows: USD/CNH edges lower and EUR/USD declines, indicating mild global risk caution without acute stress.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🔴 Nasdaq 100: Bearish
Currencies:
🔴 USD: Bearish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
🟢 Gold: Bullish
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Falling volatility may support short-term consolidation rather than strong trends.
Watch US labor data for direction in yields and the dollar.
Gold strength highlights ongoing demand for defensive assets.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.