Mixed equities with calmer volatility as tech headlines and FX keep risk in check
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral - Stocks are mixed while VIX is falling, but credit is slightly softer and the dollar is firm.
🗓 Key Events:
07:00 London / 02:00 New York - UK GDP m/m - Key read on UK growth momentum and GBP sensitivity.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Stocks cautiously higher as tech sector rattled by Oracle.
Dollar staggers to third straight weekly drop as investors ponder Fed outlook.
Gold climbs to over one-month high after Fed rate cut; silver hits record high.
Asset Snapshots:
⚪ S&P 500: Neutral - Slightly lower (-0.26%) with risk calm as VIX falls.
🟢 USD (DXY): Bullish - Dollar is firmer (+0.04%) with USD/EUR and USD/CNH higher.
⚪ Gold: Neutral - Modestly lower on the day (-0.21%) after recent strength.
⚪ Oil: Neutral - Slightly higher (+0.14%) but still range-like.
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral - Marginally lower (-0.25%) with no clear momentum.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral - Modestly lower (JP225 -0.41%) with risk tone steady.
⚪ DAX: Neutral - Slightly lower (-0.15%) with no strong follow-through.
🟢 HK50: Bullish - Up (+0.36%), leading regional risk tone.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 14.85 - Falling (-5.77%), signaling calmer risk conditions despite mixed index moves.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 75.6% chance of hold at 350-375, with 24.4% expecting the alternative.
Credit Markets: HYG (-0.01%) and LQD (-0.14%) are slightly lower, a mild risk headwind for equities.
Bond Curve: 2Y (-0.28%) and 5Y (-0.19%) are down while 10Y is slightly up (+0.05%), pointing to softer near-term rate expectations with firmer long-end yields.
FX Flows: USD/CNH is higher (+0.04%) and USD/EUR is higher (+0.02%), showing a mildly firmer USD and a slightly more cautious global tone.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
⚪ EUR: Neutral
⚪ JPY: Neutral
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
⚪ CAD: Neutral
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Watch UK GDP m/m for GBP and European session direction.
Falling VIX supports stability, but soft credit argues for selective risk-taking.
Track USD/CNH as a quick check on global stress - continued upside can pressure risk assets.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.