Mixed holiday trade as volatility drops and metals lead
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral - Equities are slightly lower, but volatility is falling and credit is firming.
🗓 Key Events:
No major releases today
🌐 Market Moving News:
Silver tops $75 as gold and platinum surge to records.
China’s yuan climbs past 7 per dollar as the PBOC caves in to bulls.
Asset Snapshots:
⚪ S&P 500: Neutral - Slightly lower (-0.05%) despite calmer volatility.
🟢 USD (DXY): Bullish - DXY is higher (98.048, +0.10%) alongside firmer longer yields.
🟢 Gold: Bullish - Gold is up (+0.69%) and holding near record levels in the headlines.
⚪ Oil: Neutral - WTI is modestly higher (+0.23%) in a range-like move.
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish - Bitcoin is up (+1.85%) with supportive macro scoring.
Non-US Indices:
🟢 Nikkei: Bullish - Up (+0.53%) in today’s tape.
⚪ DAX: Neutral - Slightly higher (+0.10%) but macro score remains weak.
⚪ HK50: Neutral - Essentially flat (+0.02%).
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 13.46 - Falling sharply (-3.93%), signaling calmer risk conditions despite flat-to-down equities.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 84.5% chance of hold at 350-375, with 15.5% expecting the alternative.
Credit Markets: LQD (+0.39%) and HYG (+0.19%) are higher, a supportive signal for equities and risk sentiment.
Bond Curve: The 2Y is flat while the 5Y and 10Y are higher, suggesting steady near-term rate expectations but firmer longer-end yields.
FX Flows: USD/EUR is slightly higher while USD/CNH is slightly lower, pointing to mild USD strength versus EUR alongside a firmer yuan and limited stress signals.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
🟢 Gold: Bullish
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Volatility is compressing (VIX 13.46) - prioritize cleaner break/retest setups over chop.
Metals are leading (silver +3.83%, gold +0.69%) - avoid chasing; wait for pullbacks/structure.
Longer yields are pushing higher while the front end is steady - watch USD strength as a headwind for risk trades.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.