This breakdown of the bond curve telling diffrent stories at different maturities is really insightful. The way you captured the 2Y ticking up while the longer end eases shows that exact tension between near-term rate sensitivity and softer growth expecations. I've noticed in my own trading that these divergences often signal the most interesting entry points, especially when volatility starts creeping up before major data. The CPI setup you outlined here is spot on for how I'm positioning today.
Thank you.
For anyone interested, here are my Dec CPI estimates, which have been better than Wall Street 70% of the time:
https://arkominaresearch.substack.com/p/dec-2025-cpi-forecast
Thanks for sharing, Marko!
This breakdown of the bond curve telling diffrent stories at different maturities is really insightful. The way you captured the 2Y ticking up while the longer end eases shows that exact tension between near-term rate sensitivity and softer growth expecations. I've noticed in my own trading that these divergences often signal the most interesting entry points, especially when volatility starts creeping up before major data. The CPI setup you outlined here is spot on for how I'm positioning today.
Cool, how did it go?