Risk appetite softens as oil slides and investors await key US data
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral – Equities are mixed, volatility is lower, and markets are digesting oil weakness and upcoming data.
🗓 Key Events:
10:00 London / 05:00 New York – Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate – Influences ECB policy expectations.
13:15 London / 08:15 New York – US ADP Employment Change – Early signal for US labor market momentum.
15:00 London / 10:00 New York – US ISM Services PMI – Gauge of services sector activity.
15:00 London / 10:00 New York – US JOLTS Job Openings – Indicator of labor market tightness.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Crude oil slumps as global tensions rise and supply concerns ease.
Asian equities edge lower after record rallies stall.
Gold retreats from recent highs amid profit-taking and a firmer dollar.
Asset Snapshots:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish – Holding near highs despite mild pullback and lower volatility.
⚪ USD (DXY): Neutral – Slightly softer, with limited directional conviction.
🔴 Gold: Bearish – Pulling back as profit-taking offsets safe-haven demand.
🔴 Oil: Bearish – Prices decline on supply outlook and weaker sentiment.
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral – Trading lower on the day, lacking strong follow-through.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral – Momentum cools as Japanese data signals slower growth.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – Slightly weaker amid softer global risk tone.
🔴 HK50: Bearish – Under pressure as Asian risk appetite fades.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 14.74 – Falling volatility suggests calm conditions despite mixed price action.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 82.8% chance of a hold at 350–375, with 17.2% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: HYG is slightly higher while LQD is flat, signaling stable credit conditions and a neutral risk backdrop for equities.
Bond Curve: Short-term yields are flat while 10Y and 30Y yields edge lower, pointing to steady rate expectations and a cautious macro tone.
FX Flows: USD/CNH ticks higher and EUR/USD edges lower, reflecting mild risk-off flows and cautious global sentiment.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
🔴 GBP: Bearish
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Watch oil-sensitive assets as crude extends its decline.
Monitor US data releases for shifts in rate and equity expectations.
Low volatility favors selective positioning rather than broad risk moves.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.