Risk assets slide as yields jump and tariff fears resurface
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
🔻 Bearish – Rising US yields and renewed tariff headlines weighed on equities while safe havens gained.
🗓 Key Events:
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – Canada CPI m/m – Key inflation input for Bank of Canada policy expectations.
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – Canada Median and Trimmed CPI y/y – Gauges underlying inflation pressure.
18:30 London / 13:30 New York – BOC Business Outlook Survey – Insight into corporate demand and investment trends.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Stocks and the dollar slipped in Asia as China data came in mixed.
Markets reacted to renewed tariff threats, lifting havens and pressuring risk assets.
Asian equities fell while yields rose sharply across the US curve.
Asset Snapshots:
🔴 S&P 500: Bearish – Broad equity declines alongside a sharp rise in Treasury yields.
🔴 USD (DXY): Bearish – Dollar weakened as risk sentiment deteriorated and tariff concerns grew.
🟢 Gold: Bullish – Higher demand for safe havens amid equity weakness.
⚪ Oil: Neutral – Prices edged higher but lacked strong directional follow-through.
🔴 Bitcoin: Bearish – Crypto moved lower in line with risk-off equity flows.
Non-US Indices:
🟢 Nikkei: Bullish – Relative resilience despite broader risk-off tone.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – European equities underperformed amid tariff uncertainty.
🔴 HK50: Bearish – Chinese market weakness tied to mixed economic data.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 15.87 – Volatility ticked higher, signaling increased caution but not panic.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 95% chance of hold at 350-375, with 5% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: HYG was flat while LQD declined, pointing to mild risk aversion and pressure on equities.
Bond Curve: The 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields all jumped sharply, signaling higher rate pressure and a tightening macro tone.
FX Flows: USD/CNH eased while EUR/USD moved higher, suggesting reduced dollar demand and rising global macro uncertainty.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🔴 S&P 500: Bearish
🔴 Nasdaq 100: Bearish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
🟢 Gold: Bullish
🔴 Oil: Bearish
Crypto:
🔴 Bitcoin: Bearish
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Rising yields remain a headwind for equity rallies.
Watch CAD inflation data for near-term FX volatility.
Tariff headlines continue to drive short-term risk sentiment.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.