Risk-off tone as equities and metals sell off, oil drops sharply, and volatility rises ahead of US ISM data.
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
🔻 Bearish - Broad selloff across equities, metals, and oil with higher VIX and falling yields.
🗓 Key Events:
15:00 London / 10:00 New York - ISM Manufacturing PMI - Key read on US factory momentum and growth tone
15:00 London / 10:00 New York - ISM Manufacturing Prices - Signals pipeline inflation pressure inside manufacturing
🌐 Market Moving News:
Asia's factory activity expands on solid global demand
Gold, silver slump with stocks in volatile trading
Oil prices fall 4% on US-Iran de-escalation
Asset Snapshots:
🔴 S&P 500: Bearish - Down -1.18% (6,860.6).
⚪ USD (DXY): Neutral - Flat to slightly higher at +0.04% (97.190).
🔴 Gold: Bearish - Down -6.59% (4,560.66).
🔴 Oil: Bearish - Down -6.41% (61.592).
🔴 Bitcoin: Bearish - Down -2.09% (75,282).
Non-US Indices:
🔴 Nikkei: Bearish - Down -1.37% (52,810.7).
🔴 DAX: Bearish - Down -0.94% (24,266.35).
🔴 HK50: Bearish - Down -2.38% (26,532.9).
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 17.43 - Volatility is rising (+3.32%), matching the risk-off price action in equities.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 85.2% chance of hold at 350-375, with 14.8% expecting the alternative.
Credit Markets: HYG is slightly higher (+0.11%) while LQD is slightly lower (-0.10%), showing mixed credit tone despite the broader risk-off move.
Bond Curve: 2Y (-0.57%), 5Y (-0.82%), and 10Y (-0.54%) yields are lower, pointing to softer rate expectations alongside weaker risk sentiment.
FX Flows: USD/CNH is slightly lower (-0.07%) and USD/EUR is marginally lower (-0.01%), while DXY is near-flat (+0.04%) - FX is mixed, not confirming a strong USD trend.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🔴 S&P 500:
🔴 Nasdaq 100:
Currencies:
🟢 USD
🔴 EUR
⚪ JPY
⚪ GBP
⚪ AUD
🔴 CAD
Commodities:
⚪ Gold
🔴 Oil
Crypto:
🔴 Bitcoin
🪙 Price Action Notes:
With VIX rising and equities down, prioritize selective setups and avoid overtrading into the ISM release
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.