Risk-off tone as stocks slide and volatility rises ahead of heavy data slate
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
🔻 Bearish – Equities fall broadly while volatility jumps, despite lower yields and firmer credit.
🗓 Key Events:
07:00 London / 02:00 New York – UK Claimant Count Change – Signals labor market tightness and GBP sensitivity.
08:15 London / 03:15 New York – France Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – Early read on euro-area activity momentum.
08:30 London / 03:30 New York – Germany Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – Key signal for core euro-area growth.
09:30 London / 04:30 New York – UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – Gauges UK demand and services resilience.
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – US Retail Sales m/m and Core Retail Sales m/m – Measures consumer strength and growth outlook.
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – US Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate – Feeds inflation and labor market expectations.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Stocks fall in the run-up to US jobs and activity data.
Oil slips on Russia-Ukraine peace talk headlines and weak China data.
Gold edges down as investors turn cautious ahead of year-end data.
Asset Snapshots:
🔴 S&P 500: Bearish – Down (-0.58%) with broad risk-off pressure across equities.
⚪ USD (DXY): Neutral – Slightly higher (+0.04%) with mixed FX signals.
🔴 Gold: Bearish – Lower (-0.42%) as caution rises despite falling yields.
🔴 Oil: Bearish – Down (-0.57%) on oversupply concerns and risk-off mood.
🔴 Bitcoin: Bearish – Slightly lower (-0.20%) tracking weaker risk appetite.
Non-US Indices:
🔴 Nikkei: Bearish – Down (-1.05%) despite prior optimism on BOJ outlook.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – Lower (-0.48%) alongside global equity weakness.
🔴 HK50: Bearish – Down (-1.66%) leading regional losses.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 16.49 – Rising, indicating increased hedging demand and market caution.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 75.6% chance of hold at 350-375, with 24.4% expecting the alternative.
Credit Markets: HYG (+0.05%) and LQD (+0.12%) rise, suggesting credit remains supportive despite equity weakness.
Bond Curve: 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields all fall, pointing to easing rate expectations and a softer macro tone.
FX Flows: USD/CNH moves lower while EUR/USD ticks higher, signaling reduced global stress even as equities sell off.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
⚪ EUR: Neutral
⚪ JPY: Neutral
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
⚪ CAD: Neutral
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Rising VIX favors defensive positioning into major data releases.
Falling yields contrast with equity weakness, highlighting growth concerns.
Watch US retail sales and PMIs for confirmation of risk direction.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.