Risk-on tone holds as Asia rallies, but higher yields and VIX keep conditions mixed
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral - Equities are green and credit is firmer, but yields and VIX are rising.
🗓 Key Events:
No major scheduled macro events today.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Asian stocks extend a record rally while oil and the dollar drift.
Oil falls on prospects of higher Venezuelan output and an ample supply outlook.
Asset Snapshots:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish - Grinding higher, supported by a strong macro score.
⚪ USD (DXY): Neutral - Slightly weaker on the day despite a bullish USD bias signal.
🟢 Gold: Bullish - Pushing higher alongside broad precious metals strength.
🔴 Oil: Bearish - Lower on supply headlines tied to Venezuela and ample supply expectations.
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish - Near recent highs with a strong macro score, despite a small dip.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral - Small gains but macro score sits at neutral.
🔴 DAX: Bearish - Macro score remains negative even with a modest bounce.
🟢 HK50: Bullish - Strong upside as the Asian equity rally extends.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 14.91 - Rising, signaling slightly higher hedging demand even as equities stay bid.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 82.8% chance of hold at 350-375, with 17.2% expecting the alternative.
Credit Markets: HYG and LQD are both higher, which supports equities and a steadier risk tone.
Bond Curve: The 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields are all higher, pointing to firmer rate expectations and slightly tighter financial conditions.
FX Flows: USD/CNH and USD/EUR are both lower, signalling a softer dollar and a modest easing in global stress.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
🟢 Gold: Bullish
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Watch rising US yields - they can limit equity upside even in a risk-on tape.
Precious metals are leading - silver strength is notable versus broader risk assets.
Oil is slipping on supply headlines - avoid forcing longs until price stabilizes.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.