Risk sentiment improves as tariffs ease and volatility drops
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
▲ Bullish – equities rise as tariff concerns ease and volatility falls.
🗓 Key Events:
00:30 London / 19:30 New York – Australia Employment Change and Unemployment Rate – Signals labor market strength and AUD sensitivity.
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – US Final GDP q/q and Unemployment Claims – Confirms growth momentum and labor market conditions.
15:00 London / 10:00 New York – US Core PCE Price Index m/m – Key inflation gauge for Fed policy.
21:45 London / 16:45 New York – New Zealand CPI q/q – Inflation outlook impacting NZD.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Stocks rise and gold drops as tariff concerns around Greenland ease.
Oil edges higher after Trump backs off tariff threat tied to Greenland.
Japan signals agreement with the US to allow intervention for rapid market moves.
Asset Snapshots:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish – Index advances with falling volatility and easing trade tension.
⚪ USD (DXY): Neutral – Dollar slightly softer with mixed FX moves.
🔴 Gold: Bearish – Gold falls as safe-haven demand fades.
⚪ Oil: Neutral – Oil edges higher but gains remain modest.
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish – Bitcoin trades higher alongside improved risk appetite.
Non-US Indices:
🟢 Nikkei: Bullish – Japanese equities supported by bond stabilization and policy signals.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – Weak macro score reflects ongoing European pressure.
🔴 HK50: Bearish – Index underperforms despite broader risk recovery.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 16.89 – Volatility falls sharply, signaling reduced near-term market stress.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 95.0% chance of a hold at 3.50–3.75%, with 5.0% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: HYG and LQD both rise, indicating improving credit conditions and supportive risk sentiment for equities.
Bond Curve: US 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields tick higher, pointing to stable growth expectations and a calmer rate outlook.
FX Flows: USD/CNH and EUR/USD both edge lower, suggesting easing global stress and steadier risk appetite.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🔴 S&P 500: Bearish
🔴 Nasdaq 100: Bearish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
🔴 Gold: Bearish
🔴 Oil: Bearish
Crypto:
🔴 Bitcoin: Bearish
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Falling VIX supports dip-buying rather than chasing breakouts.
Watch US data for confirmation of growth without renewed inflation pressure.
Strength favors equities over defensive assets in the near term.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.