Risk stabilizes as volatility drops and gold rebounds, while oil and bitcoin stay soft.
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral - equities are slightly higher and VIX is lower, but credit and crypto remain weak.
🗓 Key Events:
Tenative London / New York - JOLTS Job Openings
🌐 Market Moving News:
Asian stocks rebound with gold as volatility eases.
Crypto market volatility triggers $2.5 billion in bitcoin liquidations.
Oil steadies as markets consider possible U.S.-Iran de-escalation.
Asset Snapshots:
⚪ S&P 500: Neutral - slightly higher (+0.10%).
⚪ USD (DXY): Neutral - slightly lower (-0.07%).
🟢 Gold: Bullish - strong rebound (+2.00%).
🔴 Oil: Bearish - down again (-1.09%).
🔴 Bitcoin: Bearish - still lower (-0.91%).
Non-US Indices:
🟢 Nikkei: Bullish - Japan index higher (+0.60%).
⚪ DAX: Neutral - flat to slightly higher (+0.07%).
🔴 HK50: Bearish - notably lower (-1.70%).
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 16.35 - volatility is falling (-6.20%), supporting a calmer risk backdrop.
Fed Watch (March 2026): Markets price a 91.1% chance of hold at 350-375, with 8.9% expecting the alternative.
Credit Markets: HYG and LQD are both down (-0.43% and -0.46%), a sign risk appetite is still fragile despite the softer VIX.
Bond Curve: 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields are all lower (led by the front end), pointing to easing rate pressure and a defensive bid in duration.
FX Flows: USD/CNH is slightly lower and USD/EUR is lower, consistent with mild USD softness and reduced stress in CNH.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🔴 S&P 500
🔴 Nasdaq 100
Currencies:
🟢 USD
🔴 EUR
⚪ JPY
⚪ GBP
⚪ AUD
🔴 CAD
Commodities:
🔴 Gold
🔴 Oil
Crypto:
🔴 Bitcoin
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Oil remains under pressure even as broader volatility cools.
Credit is down while equities are slightly up - watch this divergence for risk tone confirmation.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.