Stocks grind higher as yields ease and ISM data comes into focus
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
▲ Bullish – equities are firmer with lower volatility and falling yields supporting risk appetite.
🗓 Key Events:
15:00 London / 10:00 New York – ISM Manufacturing PMI – Key gauge of US manufacturing momentum and growth conditions.
15:00 London / 10:00 New York – ISM Manufacturing Prices – Signals inflation pressure in the production pipeline.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Stocks climb as investors look past Venezuela-related geopolitical risks.
Oil trades sideways and remains volatile amid uncertainty around Venezuelan supply.
China services growth slows to a six-month low, adding to mixed global growth signals.
Asset Snapshots:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish – index trades higher with lower volatility and supportive yields.
🟢 USD (DXY): Bullish – dollar firms alongside steady US data expectations.
🟢 Gold: Bullish – prices rise as yields drift lower and metals remain bid.
⚪ Oil: Neutral – prices are choppy with no clear direction.
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish – strong upside momentum with broad risk-on tone.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral – mixed regional signals keep momentum balanced.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – underperforms relative to US equities.
⚪ HK50: Neutral – modest pullback after recent gains.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 14.52 – falling volatility signals calmer conditions and supports equities.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 82.8% chance of hold at 350-375, with 17.2% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: HYG edges higher while LQD is slightly lower, suggesting steady but cautious risk appetite.
Bond Curve: 5Y and 10Y yields move lower while 2Y is flat, pointing to easing rate pressure and a supportive macro tone.
FX Flows: USD/CNH and EUR/USD both move higher, signaling firmer dollar demand but limited global stress.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Neutral
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Neutral
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Watch ISM data for confirmation of growth momentum.
Falling VIX favors trend continuation in equities.
Oil volatility remains a risk factor for broader markets.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.