Stocks range-bound as oil steadies and investors weigh geopolitics and US data
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral – Equities are mixed with lower yields supporting bonds, while oil and gold pull back amid mixed macro signals.
🗓 Key Events:
07:30 London / 02:30 New York – Switzerland CPI m/m – Signals inflation trends and central bank policy stance.
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – US Unemployment Claims – Provides a timely read on US labor market conditions.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Oil prices recover after recent declines as investors weigh geopolitics and US data.
Gold falls more than 1% as investors lock in profits.
Stocks stay range-bound while Treasuries hold gains amid mixed economic signals.
Asset Snapshots:
⚪ S&P 500: Neutral – Prices drift lower as markets consolidate after recent moves.
⚪ USD (DXY): Neutral – Dollar is steady with limited reaction to mixed data.
🔴 Gold: Bearish – Prices retreat on profit-taking and firmer risk sentiment.
⚪ Oil: Neutral – Crude stabilizes after declines, balancing supply news and geopolitics.
🔴 Bitcoin: Bearish – Pullback continues alongside broader risk consolidation.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral – Japanese equities hold range as growth signals remain mixed.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – European stocks soften amid weaker commodity momentum.
🔴 HK50: Bearish – Hong Kong equities lag with ongoing regional uncertainty.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 15.39 – Volatility rises modestly, reflecting cautious positioning and choppy equity trade.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price an 88.9% chance of hold at 350-375, with 11.1% expecting the alternative.
Credit Markets: LQD edges higher while HYG is flat to slightly lower, suggesting stable but cautious risk appetite for equities.
Bond Curve: US 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields move lower, indicating easing rate expectations and a mildly supportive macro tone.
FX Flows: USD/CNH and EUR/USD both edge lower, pointing to limited global stress and subdued risk appetite.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
⚪ S&P 500: Neutral
⚪ Nasdaq 100: Neutral
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
🔴 GBP: Bearish
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Watch US jobless claims for near-term rate sensitivity.
Commodities remain volatile as geopolitics and profit-taking dominate.
Equities continue to favor range-trading conditions.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.