Stocks steady as yields ease and BOJ signals tighter policy debate
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral – Equities are mixed with lower yields and falling volatility offset by softer dollar and cautious positioning ahead of data.
🗓 Key Events:
13:30 London / 08:30 New York – US Unemployment Claims – Key signal for labor market strength and rate expectations.
🌐 Market Moving News:
BOJ minutes show debate on continuing rate hikes, keeping yen and Japan assets in focus.
Gold, silver, and platinum hit record highs amid strong demand for precious metals.
Asset Snapshots:
⚪ S&P 500: Neutral – Flat performance as lower yields support equities but momentum pauses.
⚪ USD (DXY): Neutral – Dollar edges lower with easing yields and mixed macro signals.
🟢 Gold: Bullish – Strong rally to record highs supported by lower yields and safe demand.
⚪ Oil: Neutral – Prices hold gains after recent rally but lack fresh upside drivers.
🔴 Bitcoin: Bearish – Pullback continues with risk appetite cooling slightly.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral – BOJ rate hike debate supports yen strength but caps equity upside.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – Weaker macro scoring and subdued momentum weigh on sentiment.
⚪ HK50: Neutral – Marginal gains with no clear regional catalyst.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 14.01 – Falling volatility signals stable risk appetite and limited near-term stress.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 84.5% chance of hold at 350-375, with 15.5% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: HYG and LQD both edge higher, signaling stable credit conditions and supportive risk sentiment for equities.
Bond Curve: US 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields drift lower, indicating easing rate expectations and a calmer macro tone.
FX Flows: USD/CNH and EUR/USD both move lower, pointing to modest dollar softness without signs of acute global stress.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
🟢 Gold: Bullish
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Watch equity reaction to unemployment claims for confirmation of rate expectations.
Precious metals remain strong but extended after sharp gains.
Lower volatility favors range trading over breakout strategies.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.