Stocks steady as yields rise and oil rebounds amid mixed macro signals
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral – Equities grind higher with firmer yields and oil gains, while volatility stays contained.
🗓 Key Events:
07:00 London / 02:00 New York – UK CPI y/y – Key input for Bank of England rate expectations.
09:00 London / 04:00 New York – German Ifo Business Climate – Indicator of confidence in Europe’s largest economy.
13:15 London / 08:15 New York – FOMC Member Waller Speaks – May influence rate expectations and USD sentiment.
21:45 London / 16:45 New York – New Zealand GDP q/q – Important signal for NZ growth outlook.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Shares trade in tight ranges after mixed US jobs data.
Oil jumps on reports of tanker blockades linked to Venezuela.
Gold edges lower while silver hits a record high.
Asset Snapshots:
⚪ S&P 500: Neutral – Up slightly (+0.08%) as gains remain limited by rising yields.
🟢 USD (DXY): Bullish – Higher (+0.09%) supported by firmer yields.
🟢 Gold: Bullish – Up (+0.40%) as metals catch a bid despite stronger dollar.
🟢 Oil: Bullish – Jumps (+1.27%) on supply disruption headlines.
🔴 Bitcoin: Bearish – Down (-0.39%) underperforming broader risk assets.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral – Flat to slightly lower (-0.07%) with cautious Asia trade.
⚪ DAX: Neutral – Modestly higher (+0.07%) with limited follow-through.
🟢 HK50: Bullish – Up (+0.28%) leading regional equities.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 16.47 – Slightly lower, suggesting stable risk appetite.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price a 74.5% chance of hold at 350-375, with 25.5% expecting the alternative.
Credit Markets: HYG (+0.06%) and LQD (+0.23%) rise, signaling supportive credit conditions for equities.
Bond Curve: 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields all move higher, pointing to firmer rate expectations and a slightly tighter macro tone.
FX Flows: USD/CNH rises while EUR/USD also ticks higher, indicating mixed FX signals and contained global stress.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
⚪ EUR: Neutral
⚪ JPY: Neutral
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
⚪ CAD: Neutral
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Rising yields may cap further equity upside in the near term.
Oil strength stands out against otherwise range-bound markets.
Watch Fed speakers for the next USD and rates cues.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.