Year-end calm with equities steady as rate expectations remain unchanged
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral – Equities are mixed and volatility is contained while rates, FX, and Fed expectations remain stable.
🗓 Key Events:
15:00 London / 10:00 New York – US Pending Home Sales m/m – Signals housing demand and sensitivity to interest rates.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Asian stocks rise as rate cut bets support risk sentiment.
Precious metals hit records before pulling back, led by silver volatility.
Asset Snapshots:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish – Holding near highs with small gains and stable risk appetite.
⚪ USD (DXY): Neutral – Flat on the day, reflecting balanced rate expectations.
🔴 Gold: Bearish – Pulls back after record highs as yields rise modestly.
⚪ Oil: Neutral – Gradual gains, but price action remains range-bound.
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish – Strong upside move with clear risk-on participation.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral – Slight declines as yen dynamics and BOJ debate offset risk appetite.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – Underperforms with weaker macro scoring and softer momentum.
🟢 HK50: Bullish – Advances alongside broader Asian equity strength.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 13.61 – Slightly higher but still low, signaling contained market stress.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price an 82.8% chance of a hold at 3.50-3.75%, with 17.2% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: LQD and HYG both edge lower, suggesting mild caution but no broad risk-off signal for equities.
Bond Curve: US 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields all move higher, pointing to steady growth expectations and no immediate shift toward rate cuts.
FX Flows: USD/CNH rises while EUR/USD is flat, indicating limited global stress and neutral risk appetite.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Equities remain supported as volatility stays low.
Rising yields continue to pressure precious metals short term.
Bitcoin strength stands out within a generally calm macro backdrop.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.