Year-end caution as equities soften and Fed uncertainty lingers
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
⚪ Neutral – Equities eased while rates and the dollar were mixed, keeping risk balanced.
🗓 Key Events:
13:30 London / 8:30 New York – US Unemployment Claims – Gauges labor market strength and Fed sensitivity.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Fed minutes showed deep divisions on the policy outlook.
Stocks declined on the final trading day of 2025 while gold steadied.
Oil prices slipped, extending a weak year on surplus concerns.
Asset Snapshots:
🔴 S&P 500: Bearish – Index slipped on the final session of the year.
🟢 USD (DXY): Bullish – Dollar edged higher despite mixed FX moves.
⚪ Gold: Neutral – Prices held steady after recent volatility.
🔴 Oil: Bearish – Crude fell again amid surplus and demand concerns.
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral – Price little changed, consolidating near highs.
Non-US Indices:
🔴 Nikkei: Bearish – Japanese equities eased into year-end.
🟢 DAX: Bullish – German stocks rose strongly.
🔴 HK50: Bearish – Hong Kong equities underperformed.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 14.34 – Volatility ticked higher but remains low, suggesting contained risk.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price an 85.1% chance of a hold at 350-375, with 14.9% expecting a cut.
Credit Markets: HYG edged higher while LQD slipped, pointing to mixed risk appetite in equities.
Bond Curve: The 2Y fell while 5Y and 10Y yields rose, signaling easing near-term rate pressure but firmer long-end expectations.
FX Flows: USD/CNH fell and EUR/USD edged higher, suggesting modest easing in global stress.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
🔴 Oil: Bearish
Crypto:
🟢 Bitcoin: Bullish
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Equities remain sensitive to rate expectations into early 2026.
Energy markets stay pressured by supply concerns.
Low volatility suggests cautious but orderly trading conditions.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.