Year-end risk-off tone as yields rise and equities pull back
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
🔻 Bearish – Rising Treasury yields and broad equity declines point to cautious risk sentiment.
🗓 Key Events:
No major scheduled macro events today.
🌐 Market Moving News:
Dollar posts worst year since 2017 as markets expect more Fed cuts.
Stocks close out the year lower as year-end trading remains thin.
Oil posts deepest annual loss since 2020 on surplus concerns.
Asset Snapshots:
🔴 S&P 500: Bearish – Index fell as higher yields weighed on equities.
🟢 USD (DXY): Bullish – Dollar edged higher alongside rising Treasury yields.
🔴 Gold: Bearish – Gold declined as yields moved higher.
🔴 Oil: Bearish – Crude fell further amid surplus and demand concerns.
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral – Bitcoin was little changed despite broader risk-off moves.
Non-US Indices:
⚪ Nikkei: Neutral – Limited movement with mixed regional signals.
🔴 DAX: Bearish – European equities lagged into year-end.
🔴 HK50: Bearish – Hong Kong equities declined sharply.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 14.94 – Volatility rose, reflecting increased short-term caution.
Fed Watch (Jan 2026): Markets price an 85.1% chance of hold at 350-375, with 14.9% expecting the alternative.
Credit Markets: HYG and LQD both declined, signaling softer risk appetite and pressure on equities.
Bond Curve: The 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields all rose, indicating firmer rate expectations and a tighter financial backdrop.
FX Flows: USD/CNH moved lower while EUR/USD edged higher, pointing to mild easing in global macro stress.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indices:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
🟢 USD: Bullish
🔴 EUR: Bearish
🔴 JPY: Bearish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
⚪ AUD: Neutral
🔴 CAD: Bearish
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Rising yields remain a key headwind for equities.
Watch volatility for confirmation of risk-off or stabilization.
Thin holiday liquidity can amplify short-term moves.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.