Global data wrap-up and month-end positioning
Today’s Market Mood, Key Events, Market Moving News.
📈 Market Mood:
Neutral to slightly bearish - China’s weak PMI data and firm dollar tone weigh on risk sentiment ahead of eurozone inflation.
🗓 Key Events:
01:30 London / 21:30 New York (Thu) - China Manufacturing PMI 49.0 - signals contraction for a seventh month, hinting at slower global demand.
10:00 London / 06:00 New York - Eurozone Flash CPI y/y - key for ECB rate expectations; inflation expected to cool to 2.1%.
12:30 London / 08:30 New York - Canada GDP m/m - provides a read on North American growth momentum.
🌐 Market Moving News:
China factory activity contracts again, underscoring fragile recovery.
Global central banks turn cautious on rate cuts after Fed and ECB.
Dollar holds near three-month highs as traders reassess easing bets.
Asset Snapshots:
⚪ S&P 500: Neutral - consolidating after strong month; traders lock in profits.
🟢 USD (DXY): Bullish - near 3-month high as rate-cut bets fade.
⚪ Gold: Neutral - supported by safe-haven demand but capped by strong dollar.
🔴 Oil: Bearish - weak demand signals from China and rising supply weigh.
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral - stable above key support despite macro headwinds.
Macro Bias:
Shows overall bullish, bearish, or neutral trends across major markets based on key economic and sentiment data. It reflects how indicators like GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, and PMIs are performing. When data improves, the bias turns bullish; when it weakens, bearish; when mixed, neutral.
Indecies:
🟢 S&P 500: Bullish
🟢 Nasdaq 100: Bullish
Currencies:
⚪ USD: Neutral
🟢 EUR: Bullish
🟢 JPY: Bullish
⚪ GBP: Neutral
🟢 AUD: Bullish
🟢 CAD: Bullish
🔴 CHF: Bearish
Commodities:
⚪ Gold: Neutral
⚪ Oil: Neutral
Crypto:
⚪ Bitcoin: Neutral
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX): 16.9 - stable and near lows; signals calm but vulnerable to surprise inflation data.
🪙 Price Action Notes:
Watch eurozone CPI for confirmation of cooling inflation - dovish ECB tone could weigh on EUR.
China-sensitive assets (commodities, AUD, NZD) remain vulnerable after weak PMI.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information only and not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.